By Sam Nkire
For anyone who’s spent time observing Nigerian politics, it won’t be rocket science to figure out the direction political events are most likely to go, come 2027.
In Nigerian politics, incumbency, especially for serving presidents and governors is not just an advantage. It is almost a life insurance policy.
Over the last 10 years, the contest for power has been between the then ruling party in 2015, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which has now won three times in 2015, 2019 and 2023, during which President Muhammadu Buhari served for eight years, and now President Bola Tinubu, who has been in the saddle since May 29, 2023.
The PDP ruled between 1999 – 2015 and performed to the best of its abilities but the people judged their best as not being good enough to lift Nigeria out of poverty.
President Buhari’s regime which took office in 2015 as an APC government also left office in 2023 without accomplishing much of his promises aimed at making the lives of the average Nigerian better.
President Tinubu came to power in 2023 with his core mandate being the restructuring, revamping and repositioning of the Nigerian economy.
So far, Nigerians, including political leaders from both divides, seem to be in agreement with some of the steps he is taking to achieve his set goals; hence the influx of people from other political parties into the ruling APC.
Going by the rate at which members and leaders of the opposition political parties are trooping into the APC, it’s easy to conclude that President Tinubu must be charting the right course to attract the huge opposition members.
Several Senators and members of the House of Representatives have helped swell the ruling party’s majority in both chambers of parliament, making it easier to get legislations passed without much ado.
The unfortunate commentary that Nigeria’s main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party PDP is unable to put its house in order, has made it impossible for it to play its constitutional role of checks and balances on the ruling party. This weakness has also helped it lose membership at both parliamentary and party membership levels.
This development seems to be setting the stage for a fait accompli for the ruling APC to win again, if nothing changes to stem the tide and stop the wave of desertions.
President Bola Tinubu came to power in 2023, May 29, promising many reforms and changes under his Renewed Hope Agenda, which is intended to boost the economy and secure lives and property, among others.
His first step at restructuring the economy was the removal of the fuel subsidy regime on his first day in office, which hit the general public so badly and caused a huge economic shock.
However, there is no doubting the fact that Nigerians are managing (although at great cost) to bear the pain of the economic restructuring with the hope of sustainable security, peace and prosperity on the horizon.
Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda aims to boost agriculture to achieve food security, unlock energy and natural resources for sustainable development, focus on education, infrastructure, health and Social investment, among others.
Many people including multilateral organisations buy into the agenda and encourage Nigeria to follow it through in a prudent and meticulous manner.
President Tinubu believes in his agenda as a solution to Nigeria’s economic problems; and even his ardent followers bet his second-term on it.
And not just a few, many of the opposition political party leaders and members coming over to APC are not only joining the party in power but the power behind the party, to be able to win their next elections with APC.
It also needs to be noted that Nigeria’s opposition parties, especially the PDP, have followed a gradual path towards disintegration and disunity, since the last presidential election in 2023.
The biggest opposition party in Nigeria at the moment, the PDP shows no sign it can pose a threat to the ruling APC, any time soon due to its disinclination to peace and harmony within its fold.
Before President Tinubu came to power in 2023, there had been discontent among Nigerians in the way the country was being governed.
Most decisive and celebrated show of discontent was the #EndSARS protests which took Nigeria by storm and led to shutting down many cities in its wake.
One fateful day in October 2020, predominantly young people of the country woke up to call for an end to the activities of a section of the police department called the Special Anti robbery Squad (SARS) because of police brutality, harassment and extortion of Nigerians, especially the youth.
The protests forced President Buhari to admit that at least 69 persons had died through the bullets of the SARS who sometimes shot suspects without questioning. This led to the disbandment of SARS soon after.
Tensions rose during the period leading to the general elections, which included the Presidential election that produced President Bola Tinubu who won largely due to intra-party squabbles in the camp of the major opposition party, the PDP.
In the run-up to the PDP’s primary election to produce its presidential candidate, an intractable crisis broke out between the party’s main contenders, former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar and former Governor of Rivers States, Nyesom Wike. This disagreement has not only remained but has gone from bad to worse
Tinubu will prove difficult to unseat in 2027, if among other things, some of his economic programmes show a flicker of hope; and if the gathering cloud of opposition alliances disappear at the sight of rain.
To quote the first Attorney-General of Abia State, 82 year old Dr Theo Nkire Esq, ” if President Bola Tinubu is able to considerably reduce the prices of petrol and rice, he is most likely to win again”.
Granted that there are problems, some of which Tinubu has begun to tackle, the current gathering of a coalition force of the opposition (unlike the APC coalition of 2014, in which this author was a participant), appears to be fundamentally beset by a credibility deficit among its organisers who don’t seem to know where to start.
Also, except the opposition raves up its campaign with more credible political leaders in their ranks, former President Badamosi Babangida’s prediction that President Bola Tinubu “will be re-elected to office for his political resilience and strategic leadership “, will come to pass.
*First published in the New Telegraph newspaper.
